Global risk of deadly heat

Global risk of deadly heat

Camilo Mora, Benedicted Dousset, Iain R. Caldwell, Farrah E. Powell, Rollan C. Geronimo, Coral R. Bielecki, Chelsie W. W. Counsell, Bonnie S. Dietrich, Emily T. Johnson, Leo V. Louis, Matthew P. Lucas, Marie M. McKenzie, Alessandra G. Shea, Han Tseng, Thomas W. Giambelluca, Lisa R. Leon, Ed Hawkins, and Clay Trauernicht

Data: This study was conducted by gathering data from previous studies and looking at the number of lethal heat events that have occurred around the world from 1980 to 2014. The study also estimates the percentage of the population that is at risk from increased air temperatures and humidity due to human-induced climate change in the future.

The number of days per year that different areas are exposed to deadly heat and humidity (‘threshold’). The simulations, a-d, are from models into the year 2100. A) historical data from other published studies; B) RCP 2.6 scenario where nearly all emissions are cut; C) RCP 4.5 is a scenario where most emissions are cut; D) RCP 8.5 is the ‘business as usual’ scenario where emissions are not cut at all.

Methods: The authors used data from 911 previous studies to use in their analysis. They collected information on the place and dates of lethal heat events, or extreme heat events that led to human deaths. The number of days per year that surpassed the heat threshold for which humans can live in was assessed for each year (1980-2014). To determine how much of the population may be at risk of heat-related deaths in the future, the scientists used four different CO2 scenarios to model air temperature and humidity to year 2100.

Results: From the previous studies, the scientists found 783 cases of human mortality linked to excess heat from 164 cities in 36 countries. Cases of heat-related deaths were concentrated to mid-latitude regions, with high occurrences in North America and Europe. Temperature and relative humidity of an area were both found to be factors important to identifying regions where climate conditions may become deadly, as these are related to human’s ability to regulate their body temperature. Currently, around 30% of the Earth’s population is exposed to climate conditions that are considered deadly. By the year 2100, this number is projected to increase to 48% under a CO2 scenario where emissions are drastically cut, and 74% under a CO2 scenario of increased emissions.

Why is this study important? This study highlights the health risks posed to humans due to increased heating of the Earth. Several countries and large cities, mostly concentrated at the mid latitude regions and equator, are at most risk.

The big picture: Under all emissions scenarios, whether we cut emissions drastically or keep emitting CO2 at the same rate, an increased percent of the human population will be at risk of heat-related deaths. This study emphasizes the importance of aggressive mitigation to minimize the human population’s exposure to deadly climates linked to human-induced climate change.

Citation: Mora, C., Dousset, B., Caldwell, I. R., et al., 2017. Global risk of deadly heat. Nature Climate Change, 7, 501-506. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3322

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